Simulayer

Our own model, tested on questions it had never seen.

167 survey questions were locked away before training. Here is how it did on them, within the survey families it was trained on.

82%Right direction, more often than any model tested When a group really differs from its country, it predicts which way. GPT-6 manages 74%.
= GPT-6Level with GPT-6 and Claude Opus 5.5 on accuracy On one server we control, not a frontier API.
10.7%More accurate than assuming a group answers like its country A standard statistical method manages 4.0%.

Against the frontier

The same 600 Eurobarometer questions and the same prompt for every model, September 2026. On new Eurostat questions tested in October 2026, Claude Opus 5.5 was ahead of our model on accuracy.

Accuracy is how much closer than the country figure. We tie GPT-6 and Claude Opus 5.5 there, the gaps being inside the margin of error, and lead every model on direction.

What it learned from

What it does not do

  • It predicts how groups differ. You supply the national figure; it splits it by group.
  • The panel in this demo runs on a frontier model while ours is being integrated.
  • It learned from European survey answers. Your own survey would teach it your customers.
  • On surveys from organisations it has never seen, such as HSL’s passenger survey, it is no better than the national figure, so there it answers with that figure.

Sealed test evaluated 24 September 2026: 183,544 group results from 167 questions in the four newest Eurobarometer waves, held out of training. Frontier comparison: 600 cells from 157 of those questions. Sources: European Commission Eurobarometer under CC BY 4.0 and Commission Decision 2011/833/EU. Neither licence implies Commission endorsement.

Try your change on a small world first.

Ask a question